EIRIN is being further developed and tailored to assess the macroeconomic and financial impacts of nature loss scenarios for Europe, and to input the nature credit risk model and the biodiversity stress-test models with policy rates adjustments.
Funder: European Commission, Horizon Europe
EIRIN is applied to assess the fiscal and financial stability implications of extreme weather events, and the climate insurance protection gap, and climate-sovereign-finance doom loop, in Italy.
Funder: European Commission, SG REFORM, TSI-2023-ESGRM-IBA.
EIRIN is applied to assess the impacts of physical and transition climate risks on the Italian economy and financial stability, providing insights into the potential effectiveness of policy responses.
Funder: European Union – NextGenerationEU, under Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP).
Mazzocchetti, A., Monasterolo, I., Dunz., N, Essenfelder, A. (2025). Breaking the economy: how climate tail risk and financial conditions can shape loss persistence and economic recovery. Ecological Economics, vol. 237, 108685.
EIRIN is applied to analyse the impacts of climate physical and transition risk scenarios on low-income and emerging countries’ fiscal budgets, and sovereign bonds and sovereign debt sustainability, using the NGFS long-term scenarios. EIRIN’s insights are used to provide recommendations to the IMF on how to integrate climate risks into Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) and Financial Stability Assessment Programs (FSAP).
Funder: G24-V20- Boston University
Gourdel, R., Monasterolo, I., Gallagher, K. (2025). Climate transition spillovers and sovereign risk: evidence from Indonesia. Energy Economics, 108211.
EIRIN is applied to investigate the double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro area economy and banking sector, and the quantification of the potential cobenefits of early climate policies, using the NGFS long-term scenarios.
Funder: The European Central Bank
Gourdel, R., Monasterolo, I, Dunz, N., Mazzocchetti, A. and Parisi, L. (2024). The double materiality of climate physical and transition risks in the euro-area. Journal of Financial Stability, 101233. Covered in: S&P Global, SUERF-Bocconi, Natixis Research.
EIRIN is applied to assess the non-linear impacts of compounding COVID-19 and physical climate risks on the economy and financial stability of developing countries, including Jamaica, Kenya, Philippines, Indonesia, Sierra Leone and Morocco.
Funder: The World Bank
Dunz, N., Mazzocchetti, A., Monasterolo, I., Essenfelder, A., Raberto, M. (2023). Compounding COVID-19 and climate risks: the interplay of banks’ lending and government’s policy in the shock recovery. Journal of Banking and Finance, 152, 106303. Covered in: Brookings Institute, World Bank Report on 360degrees resilience.
Ranger, N., Mahul, O., Monasterolo, I. (2022). Assessing Financial Risks from Physical Climate Shock: A Framework for Scenario Generation. The World Bank, Equitable Growth, Finance & Institutions Insight. Washington, DC: World Bank.
EIRIN is applied to the euro area to assess the monetary policy response to inflationary pressures coming from short term climate risks; to assess the implications of short-term climate risks on the European banking sector’s financial stability, and to provide research-based insighs for an adequate macropridential policy response.
Funder: The European Climate Foundation
EIRIN is calibrated and applied to Austria to study the implications of the low-carbon transition on the country’s fiscal and financial stability, and the role of fiscal, monetary policies and macroprudential policies.
Funder: Austrian Climate Research Program
Monasterolo, I., Dunz, N., Mazzocchetti, A., & Gourdel, R. (2022). Derisking the low-carbon transition: investors’ reaction to climate policies, decarbonization and distributive effects. Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, 3(1), 31-71.
Mazzocchetti, A., Monasterolo, I., Vismara A. (2025). Banks’ climate sentiments and credit risk: do they matter for the low-carbon transition? Working paper.